Hillary, It’s Barack. We Need to Talk
Ms. Clinton is in serious trouble. She knows it. We know it. What to do?
Barack Obama has a problem. He wants to go down in history as a transformational president. Like Ronald Reagan. But that requires being succeeded by a Democrat. A Republican president could undo much of what Obama has done, and in large part because of the way he has done it: by executive order. It may be that not all of those who live by the sword die by the sword. But it is certain that those who transform by executive order, especially by unpopular executive orders, can expect to have that transformation reversed by the executive orders of their successors. For a discussion of the magnitude of the problem Obama faces, see this article.
At the moment, there appears to be only one Democrat with a serious chance of winning the presidential election next year: Ms. Hillary Clinton. But that’s because she’s the only Democrat running. She has sucked the air—the cash and the campaigning competence—out of the Democratic race. She is the “in” candidate—and there’s no room for anyone else in the in.
But how good is her chance? At best, Ms. Clinton is only just likable enough. But a summer poll found that 60 percent of the public doesn’t trust her. And she has serious problems with the law. That may be why a Fox News poll a few weeks ago had Donald Trump beating her by five points. Donald Trump! Sic transit Obama’s legacy.
Barack Obama must know, and know better than any of the rest of us, how serious Ms. Clinton’s legal problems are. We know that by having a non-governmental e-mail account she didn’t follow government policy, and that she is sneaky and secretive is not in doubt. Whether she sent or received classified documents is still unclear. So far, it appears she sent four such documents. It seems unlikely that among the 55,000 e-mails in question more classified documents won’t be found.
What Ms. Clinton did that is not widely known may put her in even greater danger. It is true that for that danger to materialize, the FBI has to go public with the facts. The current head of the FBI, James Comey, appears to be a straight shooter, even though he was picked by President Obama. Even so, the temptation to be improperly loyal to the man who appointed him will be great.
However, there must be at least a hundred people in the FBI who have seen the Clinton file and who know enough about Ms. Clinton’s problems to send her back home to the arms of her loving husband—always assuming she isn’t sent to the quarters occupied a few decades ago by Attorney General John Mitchell. What are the odds that not a single one of those FBI people in the know will spill the beans? Not good.
And even if they don’t spill, think of the ads the Republicans will run, showing a secretive Hillary Clinton frantically deleting e-mails from her laptop to scary background music and a low-bass voice-over.
Ms. Clinton is in serious trouble. She knows it. We know it.
And Barack Obama knows it.
What to do? There’s only one solution: Get Ms. Clinton out of the race, and in time (i.e., now!) for a new candidate to make a credible run against the Republican candidate. But how?
Make a deal—make a deal that Donald Trump would be proud of.
“Hillary: listen up. You’re in trouble. I’ve seen the FBI file. I know what’s in it. And so do you. It’s bound to leak. Which means you’re poised to screw up my legacy by losing the election big-time. I don’t want that. You’ve got to get out of the race and let someone else run. And you’ve got to get out now.
“Here’s my deal: if you get out now, I will pardon you if the Republicans win. Then you’ll be safe. If you don’t get out now, I will not pardon you if the Republicans win. Then you will go to jail.
“You may be wondering how can you trust me? The answer is that there are some things in life we can never be sure of. It is true that the story of the pardon will not be buried back with the classifieds and the corset ads, in Nixon’s memorable phrase. But you probably won’t be the only person I’ll have to pardon. The secretary of defense, that Ash Carter, will probably need a pardon too. And for doing just what you did, and doing it after all the publicity about you. How dumb can people be? And who knows how many others have done stupid things? But the more people I pardon, the more credibly I can say I am doing it to prevent a wholesale witchhunt by vindictive Republicans. Will it smell good? Of course not. But it will be better than having my secretary of state sent to jail. That’s Nixon territory. Hillary, you can trust me on this because I’m not doing it for you. I’m doing it for me.
“I need an answer by next week, because another candidate needs to get going.
“And one more thing, Hillary: Happy New Year. To you and Bill.”